Why Virginia May Be a Deciding Factor in This Year’s Election
Changing demographics and the weight of Northern Virginia turn Virginia "purple" in 2012 and make the commonwealth a swing state to watch.
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In the past few weeks, both President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney have visited Virginia and said that the swing state may be one of the deciding states in this year’s election.
It’s known that there are several key states in the electoral college this year. Ohio — which is also a swing state — and Florida are both crucial states along with a few others. No Republican president has ever won the election without winning Ohio.
Mark Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University, said Virginia is now one of those swing states that will likely determine the outcome of this year’s election.
One reason: Virginia voters had not chosen a Democrat for president since the 1960s, but then-candidate Barack Obama won Virginia in 2008. "It revealed how much the changing demographics of the Old Dominion were remaking its politics. His winning margin in Virginia, 53 percent to 46 percent, was identical to his national numbers," NPR reported earlier this year.
Potential factors this year: Virginia has a low unemployment rate compared to other states. Sequestration could really affect the local economy in Northern Virginia. And, there is an increasing minority population in the state. Statistically, minorities tended to vote for Obama in 2008, according to The Brookings Institution.
In addition, Northern Virginia voters are accounting for more votes than in past years as the region's population grows. According to "Red State, Blue State," a report from the University of Virginia, Northern Virginia "accounted for just over a quarter of votes cast in the commonwealth in 2008 and may account for a third of all votes cast in 2012."
“The polling data show that it has been a close election in Virginia throughout this campaign season,” said Rozell. “Some polls show the president pulling ahead in Virginia right now, but not by a large enough margin.”
A recent poll conducted by Suffolk University/WWBT-Richmond shows that Obama has a slight edge over Romney in Virginia, with a 46-44 percent lead. Seven percent were undecided.
It’s quite possible under some circumstances that this election would come down to one state and Virginia would be it, Rozell explained. He also said that it’s important for both candidates to treat several key states as “do-or-die situations” because the difference in one state could very well determine the outcome.
In addition, Virgil Goode, a presidential nominee for the conservative Constitution Party, recently qualified for the Virginia ballot, according to The New York Times. This may cause some complications for Romney in this key swing state.
“As a third party candidate he may stir some things up a bit,” said Rozell. “He could siphon off a percent or two from presumably Romney, so there’s that wild card factor.”
Join Northern Virginia Patch editors at Busboys and Poets in the Shirlington area of Arlington Wednesday, Oct. 3 to watch the first presidential debate between Obama and Romney. Domestic issues and the economy are on the agenda. You could get free Patch prizes and free food and drinks (while supplies last).
Anita Bath
8:15 am on Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Let's hope Virginians do the right thing for America and vote for a change in leadership. We need it.
Scott B
8:34 am on Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Thank you Anita - I think that is exactly right. Once you leave the bubble of NOVA, and look around the state and country you really see things needs to be turned around. Time to move on to someone that has done that type of work.
Keith Best
2:30 pm on Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Why do people think Obama is doing a good job? Unemployment over 8% for 43 months with more people out of work now then when he took office. Median family income is down $4,000.
Why would a FIRST-TERM senator who spent most of that first term running for another office know how to run anything, especially the world's largest economy.
Mitt Romney ran a company, he ran something as large as the Olympics, he ran a state. Obama ran NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Uncle Smartypants
4:18 pm on Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Why do people think this is just a referendum on Obama's job performance? Doesn't this say what a terrible presidential candidate Mittens is. Don't you have to consider that this might reflect a general repudiation of the republican platform? He ran a company, but he's not running on the specifics of that record and for good reason - profits over people. He ran a state - well, let's ask the good folks of Massachusetts if they think Mittens did a good job. Latest Mass poll: Obama by 28%. Looks like an overwhelming majority of the voters who have been governed by Mittens thinks he isn't very good.
Bill Sweet
9:20 am on Wednesday, October 3, 2012
As I did my annual round of Doctor visit this year, three out of four practices said that they are not taking new Medicare patience’s, all four spent much of the time with me looking at their ipad devices punching buttons, all were updating the government mandated data collection which is expanding 4 to 10 times, three out of four indicated they would not be in the practice…… on and on…..
My one question: Where are the new Doctors, nurses and offices coming from to treat 25 million people who do have not a Doctor? Will English be their first language?
reston on my laurels
11:28 am on Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Many of my current and highly capable doctors speak English as a second language. I am not sure why the nationality of your doctor matters. They have to be certified by the same medical board as your native born doctors. Xenophobic much?
jane
7:51 am on Thursday, October 4, 2012
Why is there a Romney-Ryan campaign poster with this story? And what happened to my comment and the photos of President Obama that I posted yesterday?
Keith Best
7:54 am on Thursday, October 4, 2012
America saw the emergence of a true leader last night, someone ready with bold ideas to get the country back on track. Mitt Romney is that man.
I flipped to MSNBC after the debate and saw the nightly marxists hosts sitting there stunned at what they just witnessed. That was priceless.......................................
Bill Sweet
11:44 am on Thursday, October 4, 2012
This one is for Uncle Smartypants: I'm confounded by your remark "profits over people". It is "profits for people". There is a simple answer: without profits there are no companies. Without companies there are no jobs. Without companies and people paying taxes there is no government. But there is chaos. Where would you want to be?
cmvoorhees
8:00 pm on Thursday, October 4, 2012
If people want a President that speaks half truths, then I guess Mitt Romney had a good night. As I watched the debate, I was shocked that Mr. Romney who was a business man for over 25 years and in the business of moving companies overseas acted as if there is no provision for a tax break for moving jobs overseas. There is such a provision and if he were Presidential he would have known the facts.
The same goes for the Romney/Ryan tax plan. He did not outline what was in the plan. Just that he was reducing the tax rates by 20% and closing loopholes, but which ones. Ronald Reagan basically did this in the 1980's and my middle-class tax bill increased, even with the lowered tax rates. Do folks remember the deduction for interest on auto loans and credit cards? That lost deduction resulted in my tax bill increasing.
James Symanski Jr.
10:17 am on Monday, October 8, 2012
Can you please refer us to the specific section of the tax code that allows tax breaks for moving company operations overseas? If your claim really is true, President Obama should have easily been able to show that Governor Romney was lying during the debate. If the loophole really does exist, why hasn't President Obama closed it at some point in his four years in office? He's been in the world's most powerful position for the past four years.