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Annandale Votes: So-So Turnout Expected for Super Tuesday

Light turnout across Northern Virginia is expected due to limited choices on the ballot.

Update, March 7: Fairfax County-wide voter turnout ultimatey ended the night at about 5.6 percent, according to returns from the Virginia State Board of Elections. 

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In 2008, the voting precinct at Green Spring Gardens saw the second-highest number of voters of any precinct in Fairfax County's Mason District for that year's presidential primaries.

This year, it's very slow going. Precinct Chief Barbara O'Keefe said the precinct is usually strong on the Democrats' side. With only Republicans on the ballot this year, just 30 people had cast ballots by 9:30 a.m.

Just after 2:30 p.m. Fairfax County officials said via Twitter that county-wide turnout was about 1 percent.

"I came here to vote for Ron Paul," said Charles Burrow, a stay-at-home dad of three children who lives in the Lincolnia neighborhood. "I think he would make a great president. I'm not thrilled with Romney."

As Virginia heads into , the mood is decidedly flat, likely due to the ballot : former Massachusetts Gov. and Texas Congressman .

"I expect a poor turnout. With no real competition, many voters will conclude, 'Why bother?'" said Mark J. Rozell, professor of Public Policy at  in Fairfax.

Anthony Bedell, chairman of the Fairfax County Republicans, agreed. "Turnout will be very low," he predicted.

Annandale Area Turnout in 2008

Tuesday, both passion (or lack thereof) for the two candidates on the ballot and the number of Democrats and independents who choose to vote in the Republican primary will have a major affect on turnout in Annandale and across Fairfax County.

The precincts located in Annandale area ZIP codes 22003, 22031 and 22042 welcomed more than 4,000 voters to the Republican primaries in 2008. Many more people voted in the primary on the Democrat’s side that year, which isn’t an option this year.

22003 – Nine precincts, 1,801 voters in the Republican primary

22031 – Seven precincts, 1,506 voters in the Republican primary

22042 – Eight precincts, 1,010 voters in the Republican primary

2008 Turnout by Supervisory District

The greater Annandale area is divided among three Fairfax County Board of Supervisors districts — Mason, Providence and Braddock.

In 2008, the Mason district, which includes some areas north of the Little River Turnpike, had 4,192 voters participate in that year’s Republican primary. The Braddock District, which runs south of Little River Turnpike mostly west of Braddock Road, welcomed 7,062 voters. The Providence District – the far west portion of the Little River Turnpike and north of

2000 - A Comparable Year?

Because President George W. Bush (R) went unchallenged in 2004, the last comparable GOP presidential primary race to this year's was in 2000 when Vice President Al Gore went unchallenged for the Democrats. Five Republican candidates, including Bush and John McCain, battled for the GOP nomination.

That year, Virginia saw a 17.28 percent turnout. Participation that year was highest in Virginia's 8th Congressional District and lowest in the state's 9th Congressional District.

In Fairfax County in 2000, of the 544,157 registered voters, 126,234 turned out to vote in the GOP presidential primary, a 23.2 percent turnout, said Elections Chief Cameron Quinn.

In 2008, when there was both a Democratic and Republican primary, turnout was about 11 percent statewide, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

"Four years ago, it was 9,500 [voters] roughly…in Arlington in the Republican presidential primary," said Mark Kelly, former chairman of the Arlington County Republican Party. "Of course, the Obama-Clinton primary was going on the same day. There was more attention drawn to it as well. I'm guessing lower (this year), just because it doesn't seem like they (the candidates) are really contesting this."

Kelly estimated Arlington's turnout to be between 5,000 and 6,000 on Super Tuesday.

"I don't think that's going to point to the lack of enthusiasm of Republicans for November," Kelly noted. "It's more of a reflection just of the… lack of overall attention that seems to be paid here. I'd have to assume that turnout is going to be lower."

Potential VP McDonnell Encourages Participation

Gov. Bob McDonnell, who has endorsed frontrunner Mitt Romney and , asked that voters turn out on Tuesday, in a conference call with reporters on Monday.

"We have two candidates — Ron Paul and our endorsed candidate Gov. Mitt Romney — and while it [the Virginia primary] is one of 10 races that are being held across the country, we obviously think Virginia is a critically important state," McDonnell said.

"It's said to be a swing state," he said. "It was a state that three, four years ago went for Obama and seven years ago went for President Bush so it certainly has the ability for both Democrats and Republicans to win. That's why most people think Virginia will be a very important state in November. We're asking our Republican activists and Independents who want to vote in the Republican primary, to go out and vote tomorrow."

Is McDonnell, who is oft-discussed as a potential running mate with Romney, serving up Virginia's delegates to Romney on a silver platter? University of Virginia Prof. Larry Sabato, in his "Crystal Ball" report, noted Virginia's leaders are Romney supporters and said that Romney will "sweep or nearly sweep" the state and is "guaranteed Virginia" and its 46 delegates up for grabs. 

Patch editors Nicole Trifone and Jason Spencer contributed to this report.

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